Who wins 2027? The top 5 presidential candidates and their odds
Eighteen candidates are on INEC's final list for 16 January, but five dominate: Bola Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (ADC), Peter Obi (NDC), Omoyele Sowore (AAC) and Adewole Adebayo (SDP). Here are their strengths, their risks and what the numbers say.
Bola Tinubu (APC), the front-runner: won 2023 with 36.6% and has incumbency, the ruling party's machinery and new allies such as Nyesom Wike's Rivers coalition. Risks: the cost of living after subsidy removal, and persistent questions about his health and trips abroad.
Atiku Abubakar (ADC, running mate Rotimi Amaechi), main challenger: came second in 2023 with 29.1% and has a strong northern base and a coalition of big names. Risks: several previous unsuccessful presidential bids, and keeping a new coalition united.
Peter Obi (NDC, running mate Rabiu Kwankwaso), main challenger: Obi won 25.4% in 2023, including Lagos, and Kwankwaso won 6.2%, mostly in Kano: 31.6% combined. Risks: a newer party with thinner structures, and converting online energy into votes in every region.
The long shots: Omoyele Sowore (AAC) and Adewole Adebayo (SDP) each won under 1% of the vote in 2023 and would need a major upset.
What the numbers say: a projection model reported by The Guardian and Daily Trust puts Tinubu about 2.4 million votes ahead in its base case, but one scenario has Obi–Kwankwaso narrowly ahead by about 85,000. Online polls (Oxford–Metro: Tinubu 35.4%, Obi 33.9%; a Tinubu Must Go poll: Atiku 73.6%) are self-selected, not scientific samples. Our read: a three-horse race that turnout will decide.
The rules: to win in the first round, a candidate needs the most votes and at least 25% in two-thirds of the states (24) plus the FCT; otherwise there is a run-off. Battlegrounds include Lagos, Kano, Rivers and the North-West.
Sources
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