Election 2027
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AnalysisMon, 2 Nov, 4:00

2.5 million votes for Tinubu in Edo? We checked Okpebholo's promise against the numbers

Governor Monday Okpebholo says Edo's 2.5 million votes for President Tinubu are “not negotiable”. Edo has 2.87 million registered voters, and the top three presidential candidates got about 565,000 votes there combined in 2023.

Royal Palace of the Oba of Benin with Governor Okpebholo and the words “2.5 million votes?”
Royal Palace of the Oba of Benin: Kelechukwu Ajoku (CC BY-SA 4.0), via Wikimedia Commons.

The promise: after touring the renovated presidential campaign office in Benin City on Thursday, 29 October, Okpebholo said: “As you can see on the board, Asiwaju 2027 is settled. Our 2.5 million votes are not negotiable. They are already settled, and that is the truth.”

The numbers: INEC puts Edo's registered voters at 2,865,263, so 2.5 million would be about 87% of every registered voter. In the 2023 presidential election in Edo, Peter Obi won with 331,163 votes, Bola Tinubu had 144,471 and Atiku Abubakar 89,585: about 565,000 combined. Nationwide turnout in 2023 was about 27%.

“Okpe's baby”: in a live broadcast on Saturday, 31 October, the governor said “they have even changed my name from Akpako Rescue to Okpe's baby.” He praised the President's reforms, defended fuel subsidy removal and said the naira is gaining against the dollar.

The machine: campaign DG Sen. Mathew Urhoghide said the secretariat was renovated “to create a conducive atmosphere to sell the party's candidates”. Former chairmanship aspirants have been tasked with mobilising the 2.5 million, and the governor has offered land for a federal transport data centre.

The opposition: the ADC has unveiled 37 candidates in Edo, and Olumide Akpata, Labour's 2024 governorship candidate, is now with the ADC. The Edo Labour Party says it is still standing and denies collapsing into the ADC.

The referees: at an INEC stakeholders' meeting on 27 October, Resident Electoral Commissioner Obo Effanga told parties to obey campaign laws, and Police Commissioner Patrick Daor promised protection from “hoodlums and other disruptive elements”.

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