2023 to 2027: Tinubu vs Atiku vs Obi, state by state
2023 was decided by 1.8 million votes, and seven states by under four points. With new tickets and nearly 10 million new voters, here is where each of the top three is strong, and where each is exposed.
2023: Tinubu (APC) 36.6%, Atiku (PDP) 29.1%, Obi (LP) 25.4%, Kwankwaso (NNPP) 6.2%. Tinubu and Atiku won 12 states each, Obi 11 plus the FCT, Kwankwaso won Kano. Turnout was 26.7%.
The 25% rule: a winner also needs at least 25% in 24 states. In 2023 Tinubu crossed it in 29 states, Atiku in 21 and Obi in 15 plus the FCT.
Knife-edge states: Benue (2,096 votes), Sokoto (3,235), Katsina (6,762), Lagos (9,848), Osun (10,421), Nasarawa (18,439) and Jigawa (34,803) were all decided by under four points.
What has changed: Tinubu–Shettima (APC), Atiku–Amaechi (ADC) and Obi–Kwankwaso (NDC) lead 18 tickets. INEC says 103.4 million voters are registered, and the APC says it now controls 31 of 36 states.
Tinubu: incumbency and the broadest 2023 spread, but about 63% of his 2023 votes came from the North, where insecurity and the cost of living weigh heavily.
Atiku: won the North East outright in 2023 (50.6%), but no longer has the PDP machine, and many of its governors are now in the APC.
Obi: an unmatched South East base and wins in Lagos and Abuja. With Kwankwaso, the pair had 7.6 million votes in 2023, but votes do not transfer automatically.
Four open questions: turnout, Kano, the 25% rule and the economy. Votewise does not predict winners.
Sources
More from Votewise News
NewsFri, 23 Oct, 8:15Top 5 political stories this morning: Obi, Ebola, the voters' register and moreObi at the burial of a slain supporter, Nigeria's first Ebola case in the FCT, Atiku's demand for the 103-million-name register, an unverified 'ministers pay billions' claim, and Tinubu's Kaduna flag-off.0comments
BreakingThu, 22 Oct, 22:30Tinubu flags off his 2027 campaign in Kaduna, and the other sideThe APC rally is at Kaduna Township Stadium on Saturday 24 October. The Emir of Katsina told the campaign team that insecurity and hunger must come first.0comments
ExplainerThu, 22 Oct, 18:00Imam removed for campaigning in a mosque: what the Electoral Act 2026 saysA Bauchi mosque committee removed its imam over political sermons. The law bans campaigns in places of worship, police stations and public offices.0comments1reads
Join the conversation
💬 Which state do you think decides 2027, and why?
Votewise is non-partisan. Comments that are abusive, hateful, or share personal phone numbers may be removed.